How to Use Machine Learning to Predict March Madness

Every year, millions of people attempt to predict the perfect March Madness bracket, hoping to claim bragging rights or even cash prizes. Yet, despite countless strategies, from relying on gut instincts to meticulously following expert advice, no one has ever picked a perfect bracket. The odds of predicting every game in the 67-game tournament correctly? Roughly 1 in 120.2 billion! With odds like that, it’s no wonder fans are turning to more data-driven approaches, and one of the most promising technologies emerging in this field is machine learning (ML). With its ability to analyze vast datasets, spot trends, and predict outcomes, machine learning offers a smart way to approach the chaos of March Madness. In this blog, we’ll explore how you can use machine learning to boost your chances of predicting the outcome of the NCAA tournament.

What is March Madness and Why is It Hard to Predict?

March Madness is the NCAA's annual single-elimination basketball tournament featuring 68 college teams. It’s a thrilling, unpredictable event, with upsets and Cinderella stories happening every year. While teams are seeded based on their regular-season performance, underdogs frequently defy expectations, making it notoriously difficult to predict the outcome of each game accurately. Fans participate by filling out a 63-game bracket, attempting to predict every matchup. Whether you rely on gut instinct, favorite colors, or past performances, you’ll likely find yourself missing a few games. But, what if there was a more reliable method—one grounded in data and historical trends? This is where machine learning comes into play.

Why Use Machine Learning for March Madness Predictions?

Machine learning is a subset of artificial intelligence (AI) that allows computers to learn from historical data and make predictions or decisions without being explicitly programmed. It's already used across industries, from recommending Netflix shows to improving healthcare outcomes. Applying machine learning to March Madness is a perfect use case because of the tournament's rich historical data. With machine learning, you can analyze thousands of college basketball games to uncover hidden patterns, relationships, and insights that would otherwise go unnoticed. This approach allows you to make informed decisions and, potentially, outperform your competitors in bracket pools.

Steps to Building a Machine Learning Model for March Madness Predictions

Data Collection and Cleansing

The foundation of any successful machine learning model is the data it’s built on. For March Madness, you’ll need historical NCAA tournament data. The dataset should include not only win-loss records but also detailed statistics such as:

• Field goal percentage (FG%)
• Three-point shooting percentage (3P%)
• Free throw percentage (FT%)
• Strength of schedule (SOS)
• Efficiency ratings (offensive and defensive)

Popular sources like KenPom and Kaggle provide in-depth statistics on team performance and advanced metrics, like the Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) and Simple Rating System (SRS), which help refine the predictive power of your model.

Once you've gathered your data, clean and organize it to ensure it’s ready for training. This involves removing irrelevant columns, dealing with missing values, and formatting the data for analysis. You’ll also split the dataset into training and validation sets to prevent overfitting—this ensures your model doesn’t just memorize the data but learns patterns that can be applied to new games.

Feature Selection

Not all statistics are equally useful when predicting March Madness games. Some stats carry more weight than others. For example, while free throw percentage (FT%) matters, metrics like the Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) or Strength of Schedule (SOS) are more critical for determining how far a team might go.

In the case of March Madness predictions, the top five most influential metrics typically include:

AdjEM (Adjusted Efficiency Margin): Measures the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for opponent strength.

SRS (Simple Rating System): A rating that considers margin of victory and strength of schedule. Seed: While not the top predictor, seeding still plays an essential role.

SOS AdjEM (Strength of Schedule Adjusted Efficiency Margin): Reflects the quality of teams played.

AdjO (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Points scored per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule. These features are the variables that your machine learning model will use to predict outcomes, so it’s crucial to select them carefully.

Model Selection and Training

Now it’s time to choose the type of machine learning model you’ll use. Since you’re predicting whether one team will beat another (a binary classification problem), a classification model is your best bet.

Some popular machine learning models for this task include:

Logistic Regression: A simple but effective model for binary outcomes.

Random Forest: A more complex model that uses multiple decision trees to improve accuracy.

Neural Networks: Highly sophisticated models that can capture deep, non-linear relationships between variables.

In this case, Random Forest Classification is often an ideal choice due to its ability to handle multiple variables and provide feature importance insights. You’ll train your model using historical game data, feeding it thousands of games so that it can learn which variables (features) are most indicative of a win. Over time, the model will get better at understanding how factors like a team’s efficiency or strength of schedule impact their chances of winning.

Testing and Validation

After training your model, it’s crucial to test its accuracy by running it on a validation dataset—games it hasn't seen before. This step allows you to evaluate how well the model predicts actual outcomes. You can tweak your model’s hyperparameters (settings that control the learning process) to improve its performance and accuracy.

To validate your model, you’ll need to use metrics such as:

Accuracy: The percentage of correct predictions.

Precision and Recall: Measures of how well the model identifies true positives and negatives.

ROC Curve/AUC: A plot that illustrates the true positive rate versus the false positive rate at various threshold settings.

Applying Your Model to the 2024 March Madness Bracket

Once your model is trained and validated, it’s time to put it to the test. Feed it the current year’s team data to predict each game. You can calculate the probability of each team winning their matchup and use that to fill out your bracket.

A key advantage of machine learning is that it can identify Cinderella stories—low-seeded teams that might outperform expectations. For example, the model may detect a 12th-seeded team with a high AdjEM and an impressive strength of schedule, suggesting they’re more likely to pull off an upset.

2024 March Madness Predictions Using Machine Learning

For the 2024 tournament, machine learning models can provide insights into which teams have a higher probability of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, or even winning it all. Based on past tournament data, a few teams stand out as potential Cinderella stories or strong contenders for the final four.

Predicted Cinderella Stories:

• 12th-seeded
• UAB 10th-seeded Boise State
• 8th-seeded Mississippi State

These teams show higher-than-average probabilities for making deep runs compared to their seeding. On the other hand, even top seeds like Auburn could pose a threat with a performance that matches a higher-seeded team.

The Limitations of Machine Learning for March Madness

Conclusion

Predicting March Madness outcomes with machine learning won’t guarantee a perfect bracket, but it can certainly improve your odds of outperforming your competition. By relying on advanced statistics, historical data, and machine learning algorithms, you can make more informed decisions and spot underdog teams with higher chances of success.

Whether you're a casual fan looking for a fun challenge or a serious competitor in a bracket pool, machine learning gives you a smarter, data-driven approach to March Madness predictions.

Are you ready to test your machine learning skills and take your March Madness bracket to the next level? Dive into the data, train your model, and let the madness begin!